Autor: Nikola Ushinov
Head of Planning and energy procurement department in EVN Macedonia
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Solar energy is becoming an increasingly important source of electricity in Macedonia and with the significantly increased number of photovoltaic power plants that were installed in the last two years, new challenges are coming, especially when it comes to forecasting their production.
Why is forecasting important?
Photovoltaic plants produce electricity from sunlight that varies depending on various factors such as weather conditions, season and location of the plants.
The accurate forecast of production from photovoltaic power plants consists of developing mathematical and statistical methodologies, techniques and models of the variability of these factors. If the forecasts of electricity production are less accurate, it can lead to shortages or surpluses of electricity in the energy system.
That shortage of energy should be covered by the purchase of additional so-called balance energy from the operator of the electric transmission system (OETS). But the procurement of balance energy increases the costs for electricity suppliers who purchase the produced electricity from photovoltaic power plants and then transfer it to the final consumers.
In the opposite case, when there is a surplus of energy in the energy system, then it is regulated either through the providers of balancing services for the needs of OETS or through the transfer of energy from OETS to the neighboring power transmission systems through appropriate contracts concluded for that purpose.
The impact of forecasting on energy system balancing costs
Energy balancing refers to the process of maintaining the balance between the supply and demand of electricity. In a situation of electricity shortages due to inaccurate forecasts, the OETS must purchase additional energy from other sources, usually at a higher price than the market price. This energy is called balance energy and its costs can be quite high, depending on the quantity, availability, supply and on the period.
For photovoltaic plants, less accurate forecasts mean that the respective energy companies cannot accurately predict how much energy will be available at certain time. For example, if the weather suddenly changes and due to cloudiness there is less sunlight than expected, the production of electricity will be lower and the need to use balance energy will increase.
In the conditions of a market-oriented energy system, the costs for this balanced energy are paid by OETS directly to the providers of balancing services, and then OETS transfers the same costs through a clearing procedure to the producers or consumers of electricity, depending on their participation.
In the case of photovoltaic plants, accurate forecasts can help reduce the costs associated with balancing the system and also improve the stability of the energy system.
EVN Supply – a leader in the forecasting of production from photovoltaic power plants
EVN Supply is a leading company in Macedonia when it comes to forecasting production from photovoltaic power plants. The company's energy forecasting team uses state-of-the-art software solutions, technologies and advanced machine learning algorithms to provide the most accurate solar energy forecasts. This is crucial for maintaining the stability of the energy grid and minimizing balance energy costs.
Customers who choose EVN Supply for their electricity supply or purchase, rcan be sure that they are receiving services from a company that has a deep understanding of solar energy and that is constantly investing in innovation and improvement of its forecasting systems. Thanks to this, EVN Supply can offer lower costs for consumers or higher purchase prices for solar energy producers, which makes EVN Supply an ideal partner for everyone who wants to invest in photovoltaic plants.
Choosing EVN Supply means choosing reliability, trust, advanced technology, and commitment to quality, and is truly what makes EVN Supply the first choice for all consumers and producers who want to take advantage of renewable energy sources.